Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Technical Analysis : Part 8 ( Fibonacci Retracement)

Fibonacci Retracement:
  • It is identified by mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13th century.
  • Fibonacci sequence is the sum of the two preceding number. The Fibonacci numbers are: 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144 etc .
  • The characteristics of this numerical sequence is that each number is 1.618 times (approx) greater than the preceding number.
  • Fibonacci ratios are 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, 100% and 61.8% is also referred as " the golden ratio" or "the golden mean".
  • Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points ( peak and trough) and dividing the vertical distance by fibonacci ratios to identify support and resistance.
  • This tool is used for intra-day, short-term and long-term.
  •  Above is the daily chart of TSL ( Trina Solar Ltd).
  • R1, R2 and R3 indicates the resistance level at 61.8%.
  • There is sharp fall in price after testing the resistance level of 61.8%.
  • Many traders even use 50% and 78.6% retracement levels for analysis.
    • 50% retracement level is used because of the overwhelming tendency for an asset to continue in a certain direction once it completes a 50% retracement.
    • 78.6% level is used in commodity market because of high volatility.

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